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美国人疯狂花钱给全球带来了什么?
Source:https://3g.163.com/dy/article/GEB77FN105526RB5.html?spss=adap_pc | Author:Sam | Published time: 817 days ago | 602 Views | Share:

What has the crazy spending of Americans brought to the world? Economic Recovery, Inflation and Market Disruption.

美国人疯狂花钱给全球带来了什么?经济复苏、通胀和市场混乱。


Tom Fairless and Stella Yifan Xie write in The Wall Street Journal that surging U.S. demand for foreign goods, fueled by U.S. federal stimulus checks and rising U.S. savings, has boosted global growth but also created inflation around the world and price confusion.

Tom Fairless Stella Yifan Xie在《华尔街日报》发表文章,在美国联邦刺激支票和美国储蓄增长的推动下,美国对国外商品的需求飙升,推动了全球经济的增长,但同时也在世界各地造成通胀和价格混乱等问题。


Money is pouring out of the U.S. economy and across the world, propelling a global economic recovery to a degree not seen in decades, and businesses are confident that investments are being made to meet America's vast needs.

大量资金正从美国经济中喷涌而出,遍及世界各地,推动了全球经济复苏,其程度是几十年来所没有的,企业对于为了满足美国的巨大需求而进行的投资充满信心。


Economists say the U.S. economy, fueled by nearly $6 trillion worth of stimulus and hungry for world goods, is playing the role China played after the 2008 financial crisis.

经济学家说,美国经济在价值近6万亿美元刺激措施的推动下,对世界商品充满渴望,美国正在扮演着中国在2008年金融危机之后所扮演的角色。


While other countries have largely welcomed the demand burst in the world's largest economy, the forces of the U.S. economic expansion are rattling financial markets and causing disruption around the world, with shipping bottlenecks in East Asia, impacts on currencies and commodity prices .

虽然其他国家在很大程度上都欢迎世界最大经济体的需求爆发,但美国经济扩张的力量正在冲击金融市场,并在世界各地造成混乱,如东亚的航运瓶颈、对货币和大宗商品价格的影响。


Whether it is now or after 2008, the chain reaction brought by the US economic growth to the global financial system far exceeds that of China, because China's capital market is still relatively closed, while the US dollar occupies a dominant position in the international debt market and foreign exchange reserves.

无论是现在还是2008年之后,美国经济增长给全球金融体系带来的连锁反应,远远超过中国,因为中国的资本市场仍然相对封闭,而美元在国际债务市场和外汇储备中占据主导地位。


The booming American economy is a double-edged sword. Whatever it gives to the world, it gives back on the other hand. Some countries benefit from the surge in trade, while others face inflation. Risks of higher interest rates, a stronger dollar and higher bond yields could dampen their economic recovery.

蓬勃发展的美国经济是一把双刃剑,不管它给了世界什么,在另一方面又把给出去的东西拿回来了,有的国家从激增的贸易中受益,但也有国家面临着通货膨胀率上升、美元走强和债券收益率上升的风险,这可能会对它们的经济复苏起到抑制作用。


Expectations of a year-long expansion in the U.S. market are spurring companies around the world to invest in new capacity. Morgan Stanley expects inflation-adjusted global investment to rise by more than a fifth from pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022 after years of tepid growth.

美国市场长达一年的扩张预期,正在刺激世界各地的企业对新的产能进行投资。摩根士丹利预计,在经历了多年不温不火的增长之后,到2022年底,经通货膨胀调整后的全球投资将比疫情前水平增加五分之一以上。


This is especially important for China, where rising investment and strong export demand will help offset a slow recovery in domestic consumption, according to the OECD.

这对中国尤其重要,根据经合组织的数据,中国的投资增长和强劲的出口需求,将有助于抵消国内消费复苏缓慢的负面影响。


"The massive U.S. stimulus package is definitely good news for us and our industry," said Lin Guoai, co-founder of Guangzhou MYATU Pedelec Technology Co. Ltd.His company's foreign orders increased by more than 80 percent last year, with nearly two-thirds of the new orders coming from U.S. customers.

位于广州的广州美雅途助动车科技有限公司的联合创始人蔺国爱说:“美国的大规模经济刺激计划,对我们和我们的行业来说绝对是个好消息。”他们公司去年的国外订单增加了80%以上,其中近三分之二的新订单来自美国客户。


Demand is so strong that Mr. Lin said he is not worried about the 25% US tariff on e-bikes from China, and that the company is spending 120 million yuan to build a new factory to produce frames, etc. that it currently sources from suppliers parts.

需求如此强劲,所以蔺先生说他并不担心美国对来自中国的电动自行车征收的25%关税,公司正在花费1.2亿元人民币建立一个新工厂,生产目前是从供应商那里采购来的车架等零部件。


In Canada, strong U.S. growth is boosting exports, boosting oil prices and helping push the value of the Canadian dollar to a six-year high against the U.S. dollar. Inflation in Canada has risen to 3.6%, a 10-year high, forcing the Bank of Canada to withdraw its massive stimulus, which slowed its asset-buying program in April even as a third wave of COVID-19 infections is expected to weigh on growth. Becoming the first central bank in the Group of Seven to do so.

在加拿大,美国的强劲增长正在推动出口,推高油价,并帮助推动加元对美元的价值达到6年来的高点。加拿大的通货膨胀率已经上升到3.6%,创下10年来的新高,迫使加拿大央行撤回其庞大的刺激措施,尽管第三波新冠感染预计将拖累增长,加拿大央行在4月份放缓了资产购买计划,成为七国集团中第一个这样做的央行。


Meanwhile, the ECB ramped up bond purchases in March, forcing government bond yields down and blaming “inflation expectations and U.S. gross domestic product growth expectations” for some of the rise in global borrowing costs. The ECB's stimulus has helped lower borrowing costs while weakening the euro against the dollar, crucial for a bloc that is heavily reliant on exports.

与此同时,欧洲央行在3月份加大了债券购买力度,迫使政府债券收益率下降,并将全球借贷成本上升的部分原因归咎于“通胀预期和美国国内生产总值增长预期”。欧洲央行的刺激措施有助于降低借贷成本,同时压低欧元对美元的汇率,这对一个严重依赖出口的集团来说至关重要。


Two months later, the European Central Bank warned of heightened risks of a correction in the euro zone's residential real estate market amid signs of overvaluation.

两个月后,欧洲央行警告说,由于存在估值过高的迹象,欧元区住宅房地产市场回调的风险加大。